US Presidential odds update - Bloomberg odds shortening

It has been a month since I last aggregated the probabilities associated with the US election (linked here) and in that time Peter Buttigieg won the most votes in the Iowa caucus, the result of which was delayed due to technical issues.

Of the updated data below, the most interesting change has been in the betting market's probability for Mike Bloomberg to become President. Bloomberg now sits at an 11% implied probability from 5% a month ago. This is the second highest amongst the Democratic candidates. However, it is in sharp contrast to the 538 primary forecasting model which sees his chances of winning the Democratic nomination first as just 2%.

Bloomberg's primary strategy is untested - he will only begin campaigning on the Super Tuesday states, missing out earlier chances to pickup delegates. He is outspending the rest of the field put together, a strategy only possible due to his personal financial position. This could backfire given the focus in recent years on rising inequality and the behaviour of the very wealthy. The narrative of him trying to "buy" the election is something I would expect to see other Democratic candidates using if he began winning delegates. However, the betting markets clearly give him a lot of credit for being able to bring those resources to bear, and for what he brings as a candidate as a successful businessman and ex mayor of New York.

My personal view is that it is an interesting bet to lay against him winning the presidency, taking the 538 forecasting model as more likely to reflect the true probability of his chances over the betting market, given their data driven approach.

Betting market probabilities

Probabilities across sources