US Presidential odds 08/01/20

Below is a snapshot of current odds for the US Presidential election and Democratic nomination across various prediction sources taken as of the 8th of Jan. This will be updated periodically as we approach the election date.

Betting odds are taken from a website which aggregates bookies odds with the question being, "who will be the winner of the 2020 presidential election".The longest odds across the bookmakers for each outcome is shown, with the implied probability of the event calculated.

The "Good Judgement" number is taken from the crowd sourcing prediction website - The Good Judgement Project with the question slightly different - "When will Donald Trump cease to be President?". The odds for "After Inauguration day 2021" are shown. This is slightly different from whether he will win the election given there are some unlikely incidents where he wins the election but has to step down for whatever reason before inauguration.

Finally the predictions of the 538 statistics blog website are shown of the potential outcome of the Democratic nomination.

It is interesting to see Biden and Sanders priced closely by the betting markets (4pts difference), while 538 puts Biden's democratic nomination probability 14pts higher than Sanders.

Also interesting to see Bloomberg priced the same as Buttigieg and Warren.

 Links:

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/winner
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1290-when-will-donald-trump-cease-to-be-president-of-the-united-states
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/