A quick take: How did Boris do it?

Background

The UK general election held on the 12th of December 2019 saw Boris Johnson and the Conservative party win its largest parliamentary majority since 1987 (365 out of 650 seats) and Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party experience their worst result since 1935 (202 out of 650 seats). For both parties it was a sizeable swing from the June 2017 election (+48 seats for the Conservatives and -60 for Labour), what were some of the factors that drove this?

Poll data takeaways

Detailed polling data from Lord Ashcroft (https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/12/how-britain-voted-and-why-my-2019-general-election-post-vote-poll/) highlighted the key themes of this election. "Asked to choose their top three broad reasons for their decision, Conservative voters were most likely to say their party or leader “was the most likely to get the Brexit outcome I wanted” (68%), “would do a better job of running the economy” (64%), and that the leader “would make a better Prime Minister” (58%)." While "The top reasons Labour voters chose were that they “trusted the motives of the party I voted for more than those of other parties” (65%), that they “preferred the promises made by the party I voted for more than the promises of other parties” (59%), and that they thought Labour would do a better job of running the economy (though only 39% chose this as a reason). Only 19% of Labour voters said that believing the party would get the Brexit outcome they wanted was among their top three reasons for doing so."

While Brexit was clearly key, worth highlighting is the difference in trust on the economy and its relatively higher importance for Conservative voters.

Winning on these issues allowed the Conservatives to gain the largest share (43%) of the working and non-working social class vote (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NRS_social_grade) something which Theresa May failed to do in 2017 (41% to Labour's 43%). Labour's 37% share of this demographic will perhaps be their biggest dissappointment given the focus of their campaign and is another datapoint in the breakdown of the traditional voter coalitions which we came to expect in Western democracies.

Campaign comparison

"Get Brexit done" was the memorable and clear slogan of the Conservative campaign, just three words which, as the poll data showed, reflected the frustration of many in the UK over the lack of progress on this issue, and signposted the Conservative's focus in this parliament. Strong campaigns have memorable slogans, a factor which I think has increased in importance in the information age, given the number of messages, emails and adverts we recieve each day. Can you recall the Labour slogan, given the election was only a few weeks ago? "It's time for real change", I had to look it up.

Linked to this was the discpline shown in each party's manifesto (https://vote.conservatives.com/our-plan and https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/). The Conservative manifesto website has the main promises front and centre, allowing you to quickly read what they plan. Contrast this to the Labour manifesto website, which requires clicking through various sections and subsections on the website before you get to the meat.

Finally, another aspect of any political campaign is winning the "Beer Test". When making complicated decisions under uncertainty we often substitute the question for a more simple one subconsciously. In the case of a general election, politicians are keen to present themselves as the candidate you would most like to go for a pint with. Boris's unconventional and semi-serious demeanor, history of hijinks and regular appearances on comedic panel shows like "Have I Got News for You", means I think this contest was over before it started.

While not trying to being comprehensive, I hope this shone a light on some of the important aspects of this election.Comments and constructive criticism welcome.