Market Update 30/09/13

One line- Risk off moves on US budget concern with global stocks tumbling while gold, Treasuries and the yen rallied.

- Asian stocks fell overnight with the Nikkei selling off 2.06% as Congress failed to reach an agreement over the US budget. Congress now has just one day to prevent a government shutdown which is calculated to slow US GDP growth 0.1% for every day it is in effect. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-30/asian-stocks-fall-paring-monthly-gain-over-u-s-budget.html

- European stocks opened down this morning as the market made risk off moves on US budget concern. The Republican controlled House of Representatives voted yesterday in support of a bill which ties a delay in central provisions of Obama's health care bill to an extension of government funding. If the Senate rejects the bill today the government will shutdown. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-30/european-stock-index-futures-drop-as-u-s-shutdown-looms.html

- Gold advanced to the highest level in more than a week as demand for safe haven assets was boosted. Bullion gained 1.3% on the recent US budget news. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-30/gold-climbs-as-prospect-of-u-s-government-shutdown-spurs-demand.html

- Italian yields jumped as Berlusconi pulled his ministers from a 5 month grand coalition as he tried for new elections. Enrico Letta the Italian prime minister spoke yesterday with Giorgio Napolitano, the head of state, as both look to avoid dissolving parliament and calling new elections. Letta is expected to present a plan for government and have a vote of confidence on Wednesday. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7b12685c-2927-11e3-ab62-00144feab7de.html#axzz2gMap02d2

- Treasury yields fell to a 7 week low as investors shifted preferences to safe haven assets. The dollar fell to a one month low vs the yen while the pound gained also.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-30/treasury-yields-drop-to-7-week-low-as-shutdown-fuels-safety-bid.html  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-29/dollar-extends-drop-against-yen-with-government-shutdown-looming.html

Data

S&P 1691.75 0.41%
FTSE 6467.99  0.69%
Nikkei 14,455.80 2.06%

EUR/USD- 1.3499 0.17%
USD/JPY- 97.81 0.44%
GBP/USD- 1.6156 0.11%

Gold- 1340.95 0.30%
Oil (Brent)- 107.78 0.78%

Copper- 333.25 0.09%

10 year yields
US- 2.61 (-1bps)
UK- 2.69 (-1bps)
Japan- 0.68 (+1bps)

Market Update 27/09/13

One line- Positive US jobless claims data drove markets higher but budget talks loom ahead.

- US stocks reversed a five day losing streak yesterday as an unexpected drop in jobless claims pushed the S&P up 0.3%. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-26/u-s-stock-futures-rise-after-five-day-slide-for-s-p-500.html

- US jobless claims data and data showing Japan is experiencing its highest inflation since 2008 drove Asian markets higher overnight. Inflation in Japan was 0.8%. The Asia MCSI index added 0.3% although the Nikkei sold off 0.26% as the yen appreciated. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-27/asia-stocks-set-for-best-monthly-gain-since-sept-2010.html

- Ahead of a report today on economic confidence in the euro area european equities are flat having had a similar day yesterday. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-27/europe-stock-index-futures-little-changed-before-data.html

- Gold swung between gains and losses as investors considered how the unexpected drop in US jobless claims would affect the Fed's decision to taper. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-27/gold-extends-weekly-drop-as-jobless-claims-boost-fed-taper-bets.html

- The pound headed to an 8 month high vs the dollar as Mark Carney told a UK newspaper he saw no need for further stimulus. The yen strengthened as worries about US budget talks drove its safe haven status. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-26/dollar-poised-for-weekly-advance-before-consumer-data-fed-speak.html

Data

S&P 1698.67 0.35%
FTSE 6544.86  0.32%
Nikkei 14,760.07 0.26%

EUR/USD- 1.3502 0.10%
USD/JPY- 98.61 0.38%
GBP/USD- 1.6080 0.24%

Gold- 1326.07 0.15%
Oil (Brent)- 108.92 0.27%

Copper- 330.95 0.08%

10 year yields
US- 2.65 (0bps)
UK- 2.74 (-1bps)
Japan- 0.67 (-2bps)

Market Update 26/09/13

One line- Mixed picture with the US selling off on debt talk worries while Asian markets rallied on speculation that Japanese policy makers will study a corporate tax cut.

- US stocks continued to sell off yesterday as the markets focus on upcoming US debt talks. Asian equities led by Japanese shares climbed on speculation that the government will study a corporate tax cut. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-26/asian-stocks-fall-third-day-trimming-monthly-advance.html

- European stocks were little changed this morning as investors await significant news with regard to tapering or the US debt ceiling. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-26/europe-stock-index-futures-little-changed-before-data.html

- Emerging stocks fell to a one week low while the Brazilian real posted the biggest decline in a month. The sell off trimmed its September advance to 8.4%. A private survey showed yesterday that China's economy slowed last quarter with manufacturing and transport growth experiencing a drop in activity. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-25/emerging-stocks-fall-to-one-week-low-on-u-s-demand-rupiah-drops.html

- The pound appreciated against the dollar and is approaching an 8 month high ahead of GDP figures to be released today. Economists predict the UK economy grew 0.7% in the three months through June.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-26/pound-about-0-5-from-eight-month-high-before-u-k-growth-report.html

- McKinsey & Co. see the global commodity super cycle continuing as supply constraints and demand from emerging markets is likely to push prices higher. The report states that energy, metal and agriculture prices that more than doubled since 2000 are still close to highs that they reached before the financial crisis.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-25/commodity-constraints-show-super-cycle-endures-mckinsey-says.html

Data

S&P 1692.77 0.27%
FTSE 6543.55  0.12%
Nikkei 14,799.12 1.22%

EUR/USD- 1.3509 0.13%
USD/JPY- 98.64 0.21%
GBP/USD- 1.6049 0.20%

Gold- 1337.67 0.25%
Oil (Brent)- 108.52 0.18%

Copper- 330.05 0.87%

10 year yields
US- 2.64 (+1bps)
UK- 2.75 (-1bps)
Japan- 0.68 (+1bps)

Far Better Economic calendar

Having posted a calendar for market events which only covered the US I found this one which covers world data - http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar?tz=&sort=date&week=2013%2F0929&eur=true&usd=true&jpy=true&gbp=true&chf=true&aud=true&cad=true&nzd=true&cny=true&high=true&medium=true&low=true

Market Update 25/09/13

One line- Risk off mood continues in the markets as budget talks loom ahead.

- US stocks fell yesterday as upcoming budget talks came into focus and US consumer confidence was shown to be at a 4 month low. The S&P sold off 0.3% while home builders gained 2.3% after a report showed home prices increased by the most in 7 years. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-24/u-s-stock-index-futures-little-changed-red-hat-declin
es.html

-  Asian stocks fell for a second day on the US consumer confidence news paring the gains made last week on the Fed announcement. The Nikkei slid 0.76%. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-25/asian-stocks-fall-second-day-as-u-s-confidence-declines.html

- European equities slid this morning continuing the sell off from Asia and the US as the market shifts focus to the US budget talks. US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said investor confidence that a deal can be struck is "greater than it should be". http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-25/most-asian-stocks-decline-with-currencies-as-commodities-rebound.html

- The yen gained against most of its peers with its safe haven status driving the strength. The dollar was little changed ahead of new home sales data. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-24/dollar-holds-gains-as-budget-talks-spur-haven-appeal-kiwi-drops.html

- Angela Merkel's Christian Democrat party ruled out forming a coalition with the Green party making it almost certain that a centre right-centre left "grand coalition" will be formed. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/09/24/uk-germany-election-idUKBRE98N0QG20130924

Data

S&P 1697.42 0.26%
FTSE 6563.34  0.12%
Nikkei 14,620.53 0.76%

EUR/USD- 1.3497 0.17%
USD/JPY- 98.53 0.22%
GBP/USD- 1.5992 0.08%

Gold- 1321.16 0.16%
Oil (Brent)- 109.08 0.41%

Copper- 326.55 0.28%

10 year yields
US- 2.64 (-1bps)
UK- 2.78 (-1bps)
Japan- 0.66 (0bps)

Market Update 24/09/13

One line- Risk off session in the markets as the focus shifts to US budget talks.

- US stocks fell amid Fed speeches as the S&P had the longest retreat in a month. The index sold off 0.47% with banks leading the decline. A report released yesterday forecast a 20% drop in fixed income revenues for the banks. The Fed speeches gave investors mixed signals with 2 officials presenting opposing cases for tapering in the near term.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-23/u-s-stock-index-futures-are-little-changed-on-china-pmi.html

- Asian stocks fell from a four month high as focus shifts to the upcoming US budget talks. The Topix slid 0.3% while the Shanghai Composite fell 0.6%. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-24/asia-stocks-fall-from-4-month-high-amid-u-s-budget-talks.html

- European stocks erased gains this morning as German data on business confidence missed forecasts. The German IFO index missed the 108 that was forecast reading 107.7. The Stoxx Europe 600 index sold off 0.1% this morning. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-23/australian-futures-fall-as-u-s-stocks-drop-crude-slides.html

- The dollar reversed a two day advance against the euro as investors shift focus to the US debt talks. The currency is set for a 3.7% decline vs the euro for the quarter driven by improving European economic data and the tapering decision. The aussie dollar also dropped adding to general risk off moves. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-23/dollar-holds-drop-as-shutdown-looms-fed-stimulus-damps-demand.html

- WTI traded near a 6 week low as the Syria situation has subsided and as traders speculate a UN resolution will be passed this week. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-23/crude-trades-near-six-week-low-as-middle-east-concern-eases.html

Data

S&P 1701.84 0.47%
FTSE 6562.76  0.08%
Nikkei 14,732.61 0.07%

EUR/USD- 1.3494 0.01%
USD/JPY- 99.10 0.25%
GBP/USD- 1.5983 0.37%

Gold- 1319.20 0.27%
Oil (Brent)- 108.03 0.12%

Copper- 326.65 0.97%
10 year yields
US- 2.69 (-1bps)
UK- 2.87 (-4bps)
Japan- 0.67 (-1bps)

Market Update 23/09/13

One line- Slow day trading as the market begins to shift focus from tapering to the US debt ceiling.

- Asian stocks traded near a four month high overnight after a Chinese manufacturing index surprised on the upside. HSBC and Markit Economics preliminary PMI figure was 51.2 - a sixth month high. Emerging stocks gained on the news with the MSCI emerging markets index adding 0.1%. Japanese markets were closed for holiday. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-23/asian-stocks-near-4-month-high-before-china-manufacturing.html

- European stocks were little changed this morning as Merkel won 41.5% of the vote in the German elections over the weekend. Her previous coalition partners, the Free Democrats, did not win a large enough share to form a coalition with. It is expected she will have to pursue a grand coalition with the SDP, merging centre right with centre left. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ab5476ac-2406-11e3-b506-00144feab7de.html#axzz2fhhD6zDQ  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-23/european-stock-futures-little-changed-after-merkel-win.html

- The euro approached a seven month high after Merkel's win while the dollar continued to sell off on the back of the unchanged QE announcement by the Fed. The euro has strengthened 2.6% this year against the dollar and 17% against the yen. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-22/euro-gains-against-dollar-after-merkel-seen-winning-election.html

- Market focus will begin to shift to the possibility of a US government shut down following relief from the delay of tapering. Republicans are using the issue to try and force a de-funding of Obama's healthcare bill. Government shut down would occur early in October while the debt ceiling needs to be raised to prevent default by late October.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-23/stocks-at-risk-with-government-shutdown-looming-before-a-default.html

Data

S&P 1709.91 0.72%
FTSE 6588.77  0.12%
Nikkei closed

EUR/USD- 1.3520 0.03%
USD/JPY- 98.96 0.40%
GBP/USD- 1.6044 0.24%

Gold- 1327.50 0.12%
Oil (Brent)- 109.13 0.08%

Copper- 329.50 0.77%

10 year yields
US- 2.74 (0bps)
UK- 2.93 (+1bps)
Japan- 0.69 (0bps)