Economic Data calendar

Very useful calendar showing the release of upcoming economic data and other market events - http://mam.econoday.com/

Market Update 20/09/13

One line- Markets pause after Fed induced rally.

- US stocks declined yesterday after the Dow and S&P hit record highs on the news on Wednesday that the Fed would leave monetary policy unchanged. The S&P sold off 0.18% with the Dow sliding 0.26%. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-19/u-s-stock-futures-rise-signaling-fresh-s-p-500-record.html

- Asian stocks traded at a four month high as the yen sold off 1.5% against the dollar. The Topix gained 0.3% while the MSCI Asia Pacific index added 0.1%. India's Sensex slumped 2.7% as the RBI unexpectedly raised interest rates by 25 basis points. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-20/asian-stocks-extend-four-month-high-as-japan-shares-rise.html

- European stocks near a five year high were little changed this morning. The market is looking ahead to the result of the German election in which Merkel's Christian Democratic Union is expected to retain power but may have to form a new coalition. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-20/european-stock-futures-little-changed-before-german-vote.html

- Emerging market currencies and equities slid yesterday as investors took profits from the rally on the Fed news. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-20/emerging-stocks-fall-with-currencies-as-india-sinks-on-repo-rate.html

- Metals declined yesterday with gold trimming its first weekly advance in a month. Reports showed US home sales unexpectedly rose in August and jobless claims gained less than forecast last week. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-20/gold-declines-on-u-s-data-to-pare-first-weekly-gain-in-a-month.html

Data

S&P 1722.34 0.18%
FTSE 6620.04  0.08%
Nikkei 14,742.42 0.16%

EUR/USD- 1.3531 0.01%
USD/JPY- 99.29 0.16%
GBP/USD- 1.6053 0.13%

Gold- 1354.01 0.90%
Oil (Brent)- 109.08 0.29%

Copper- 334.45 0.07%
10 year yields
US- 2.73 (-2bps)
UK- 2.90 (0bps)
Japan- 0.67 (0bps)

Market Update 19/09/13

One line- Bernanke surprises markets by leaving monetary policy unchanged causing global asset prices to rally and the dollar to weaken.

- Global stocks soared to 5 year highs as Bernanke surprised markets by leaving QE unchanged. Treasuries experienced their biggest rally since 2011 with the ten year yield falling 16 basis points. The S&P added 1.2%, the Nikkei gained 1.8% and the FTSE has added 1.5% this morning.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-19/bernanke-resets-fed-policy-by-doing-nothing-as-markets-take-off.html

- Gold gained 4.1% on the Fed announcement leading the gains for metals. WTI jumped to $108.72 as stockpiles fell to the lowest level since March 2012. The dollar sold off for the fifth day in a row coming close to the lowest close since February. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-18/asian-futures-rise-as-fed-holds-stimulus-aussie-retreats.html

- Yellen's chance of becoming the first female Fed Chairman improved as the number three Democrat in the Senate, Charles Schumer, backed her to be picked. Schumer said that Yellen would be an "excellent choice" to succeed Bernanke when his term ends on January the 31st. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-18/new-york-s-schumer-backs-yellen-to-replace-bernanke-at-fed.html

- Emerging currencies experienced a massive relief on the Fed news with the Malaysian ringgit climbing the most since 1998. The ringgit gained 2.5% while the rupee gained 2.4% against the dollar.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-19/ringgit-leads-jump-in-asian-currencies-as-fed-maintains-stimulus.html

- European bonds rallied yesterday with Spanish ten year yields falling five basis points to 4.36%. German ten year yields slid the most since 2011 falling to 1.90%. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-19/german-yields-drop-most-since-2011-after-fed-maintains-stimulus.html

Data

S&P 1725.52 1.22%
FTSE 6653.05  1.44%
Nikkei 14,766.18 1.80%

EUR/USD- 1.3552 0.18%
USD/JPY- 98.92 1.00%
GBP/USD- 1.6075 0.45%

Gold- 1367.45 0.27%
Oil (Brent)- 110.83 0.21%

Copper- 334.65 2.07%

10 year yields
US- 2.69 (0bps)
UK- 2.85 (-15bps)
Japan- 0.67 (-3bps)

Market Update 18/09/13

One line- Dollar and gold weakness while stocks gain cautiously ahead of the result of the FOMC meeting today.

- US equities gained yesterday as Microsoft's plan to buy back $40 billion in stock fuelled optimism that companies would return more cash to shareholders. The euro strengthened as German investor confidence increased. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-16/australian-futures-fall-after-stock-jump-as-dollar-steady.html

- Gold continued its decline along with emerging market stocks ahead of the conclusion of the FOMC meeting today. Positive news for consumer discretionary companies in Japan pushed the Nikkei up 1.4%. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-17/asian-index-futures-rise-before-fed-as-crude-oil-rebounds.html

- European shares advanced this morning but investors are cautious about adding to long positions before a decision on tapering is made today. The Bank of England released minutes from the September 4-5 meeting that showed officials unanimously voted to maintain policy as the UK economy recovers. US housing starts data is expected to show growth from 896 000 to 917 000 annualized from July to August.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-18/european-stock-index-futures-little-changed-before-fed.html

- The dollar lingered near 5 week lows against a basket of currencies yesterday after losing 0.6% in the last week. The decline has been caused by an easing of the Syria situation and Summers exit from the Fed race. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-17/dollar-near-3-week-low-versus-euro-before-fed-concludes-meeting.html

- WTI advanced for the first time in four days before a report by the Energy Information Administration. The report is expected to show that crude inventories fell to the lowest level since August 2012.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-18/wti-swings-after-three-day-drop-as-libya-seeks-to-restore-output.html

Data

S&P 1704.76 0.42%
FTSE 6574.74  0.07%
Nikkei 14,505.36 1.35%

EUR/USD- 1.3356 0.02%
USD/JPY- 98.87 0.26%
GBP/USD- 1.5970 0.42%

Gold- 1302.56 0.61% 
Oil (Brent)- 108.38 0.18%

Copper- 323.95 0.51%

10 year yields
US- 2.84 (-1bps)
UK- 2.95 (+2bps)
Japan- 0.72 (+1bps)

Abe the analyst

“Clearly, Japan is now a Buy” - http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2013/09/17/pm-abe-turns-pitchman-says-japan-is-now-a-buy/

Market Update 17/09/13

One line- The rally following Summers departure from the Fed race reverses as investors look ahead to the FOMC meetings today and tomorrow.

- Following the rally yesterday, on the news Summers would not be a candidate for the Federal Reserve Chairman, global stocks have retreated. Market focus has shifted back to whether the Fed will decide to taper in meetings today and tomorrow. Treasuries also rallied and have subsequently fell back with the ten year yield falling to 2.78% and then rising back up to 2.85%. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c2e4a890-1f43-11e3-b80b-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2f2pLDFdy

- Oil continued to decline on the Syria resolution while emerging currencies resumed their trend, weakening against the dollar ahead of the FOMC meetings today and tomorrow. The expectation is that the Fed will reduce its monthly Treasury purchases by $10 billion to $35 billion and that it will keep mortgage bond-buying at $40 billion. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-16/australian-futures-fall-after-stock-jump-as-dollar-steady.html

- UK inflation slowed to 2.7% in August compared with 2.8% in July, the figure was the same as the median forecast. Having strengthened yesterday vs the dollar the pound pared its gains this morning. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-17/u-k-inflation-slows-to-2-7-on-transport-clothing-prices.html

- Yellen is now the odds on favourite to be the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Currently the vice chairman at the Fed, she would be the first woman to serve in the chairman role. Obama has promised to reveal his choice in the fall which officially begins on September 22nd. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-17/yellen-said-to-top-obama-s-fed-list-after-summers-s-exit.html

- Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia showed policy makers were leaving open the option to cut rates further from the record low of 2.5%. The country has been struggling with rising unemployment and slowing growth as demand for its exports has receded. The aussie dollar has lost 10% this year and unemployment is at a 5 year high of 5.8%. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-17/rba-says-rate-cuts-still-possible-signals-no-moves-imminent.html

Data

S&P 1697.60 0.57%
FTSE 6604.90  0.27%
Nikkei 14,311.67 0.65%

EUR/USD- 1.3359 0.19%
USD/JPY- 99.21 0.13%
GBP/USD- 1.5898 0.01%

Gold- 1319.46 0.51% 
Oil (Brent)- 109.74 0.30%

Copper- 322.25 0.59%

10 year yields
US- 2.84 (-3bps)
UK- 2.90 (+2bps)
Japan- 0.72 (0bps)

Market Update 16/09/13

One line- Global stocks rally while the dollar and gold declines on the news that Larry Summers is out of the running for Federal Reserve Chairman and that Syria will disarm peacefully. 

- Larry Summers took himself out of the running to be Federal Reserve Chairman yesterday in the face of strong opposition from some Democrats. Larry was the front runner in a two horse race with Janet Yellen and is seen as more hawkish. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8a46d28a-1e47-11e3-85e0-00144feab7de.html#axzz2f2pLDFdy

- The dollar weakened while global stocks have rallied with Treasuries on the news that Summers has taken himself out of the running for Federal Reserve Chairman. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.4% overnight while 10 year Treasury yields fell 8 basis points to 2.8%. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-15/dollar-sinks-on-summers-as-australian-index-futures-climb.html

- US bond investors are expecting a small reduction in bond purchases to be announced this week by the Federal Reserve. Markets have priced in a $5 to $10bn reduction in the Feds $85bn monthly purchases. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/77808e10-1cc2-11e3-a8a3-00144feab7de.html#axzz2f2pLDFdy

- Gold declined in London this morning as the US, Russia and Syria reached an agreement for Syria to disarm its chemical weapons. WTI extended its biggest weekly drop since July on the news falling to $106.63 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-16/gold-declines-in-london-as-haven-demand-subsides-on-syria.html  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-15/wti-extends-biggest-weekly-loss-since-july-on-syria-arms-plan.html

- Emerging market currencies were buoyed by the news about Summers with the rupee, the rupiah and the lira all gaining at least 1% overnight. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d759ec54-1e9e-11e3-b80b-00144feab7de.html#axzz2f2pLDFdy

Data

S&P 1687.99 0.27%
FTSE 6637.23  0.81%
Nikkei Not Trading

EUR/USD- 1.3343 0.37%
USD/JPY- 98.89 0.49%
GBP/USD- 1.5928 0.33%

Gold- 1318.58 0.57% 
Oil (Brent)- 110.32 1.24%

Copper- 321.65 0.41%

10 year yields
US- 2.82 (-7bps)
UK- 2.87 (-4bps)
Japan- 0.72 (0bps)