FX graphic

http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/09/great-graphic-fx-turnover.html - FX turnover in three days exceeds total world trade in year while the dollar is on one side of 87% of trades.

Market Update 13/09/13

One line- Investors take profit following the equity rally early in the week and ahead of the FOMC meeting on the 17th and 18th.

- Tapering concern and weak eurozone industrial production figures caused global stocks to fall with the S&P losing 0.3% while the FTSE Asia Pacific index lost 0.5%. The dollar index showed strength gaining 0.2%. The Nikkei was amongst a few that gained adding 0.12% on the back of a weaker yen. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/05c26080-1c24-11e3-b678-00144feab7de.html#axzz2eNo4QzxI

- European stocks retreated this morning as investors await a report on US retail sales. The report is expected to show that US retail sales increased at a faster pace in August than July. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-13/european-stock-futures-little-changed-fresenius-may-move.html

- Chinese shares led emerging stock losses paring the biggest weekly advance since June. Sentiment on the emerging markets has quickly reversed as investors look for brighter growth prospects in the US, Japan and Europe. Indian markets have been judged to have the worst outlook followed by Brazil, Russia and China. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-13/emerging-stocks-trim-best-weekly-gain-since-june-on-china-slump.html

- Treasury yields rose as the Nikkei, a business newspaper in Japan, reported that Summers was to be named the next Federal Reserve chairman without naming a source. 10 year yields moved to 2.94% as the market views Summers as hawkish.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-13/u-s-2-10-year-spread-is-near-widest-since-11-on-policy-outlook.html

- Gold slumped to a 5 week low as receding Syria concerns and tapering expectation caused the biggest weekly decline since June. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-13/gold-heads-for-worst-weekly-loss-since-june-as-fed-seen-tapering.html

Data

S&P 1683.42 0.34%
FTSE 6567.75  0.32%
Nikkei 14,404.67 0.12%

EUR/USD- 1.3289 0.08%
USD/JPY- 99.66 0.12%
GBP/USD- 1.5810 0.03%

Gold- 1312.02 0.73% 
Oil (Brent)- 112.33 0.27%Copper- 320.50 0.16%

10 year yields
US- 2.93 (+2bps)
UK- 2.96 (+2bps)
Japan- 0.72 (0bps)

Market Update 12/0/9/13

One line- Market focus shifts from positive Chinese economic data and the easing of the Syria situation to the potential tapering next week.

- The equity rally that begun at the start of the week has lost momentum as traders look ahead to next weeks potential tapering announcement. Weekly jobless claims for the US are announced today. The S&P added 0.3% yesterday while the Nikkei lost 0.3% as the Yen strengthened below Y100 vs the dollar.  http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d439a868-1b59-11e3-b781-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2eNo4QzxI

- European stocks opened up this morning as investors expressed confidence that the region's economy was improving. Unemployment increased in Australia rallying their bonds and sliding the Aussie dollar. Gold continued its slide as fears over a military strike in Syria subsided. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-11/australian-index-futures-rise-as-kiwi-gains-oil-rebounds.html

- Emerging markets have had their biggest rally of the year so far gaining 6.3% in the last 6 days. Positive economic data from China and the easing of the situation in Syria has driven the gains. Despite this emerging stocks are still down 6% year to date. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-11/emerging-stocks-seen-overbought-as-jump-makes-brazil-bull-market.html

- The Chinese premier Li Keqiang has committed to overhauling state-dominated financial institutions, to free up interest rates and to allow the renminbi to float- a big step towards the liberalisation of the Chinese financial markets. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/43fb452e-1adf-11e3-87da-00144feab7de.html#axzz2eNo4QzxI

- Unemployment dropped unexpectedly in the UK to 7.7% in the three months to to July. Ahead of Mark Carney testifying before parliament today UK gilts have rallied and the pound slid from a seven month high vs the dollar at $1.5789. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-12/pound-reaches-seven-month-high-before-boe-carney-s-testimony.html

Data

S&P 1689.13 0.31%
FTSE 6581.95  0.10%
Nikkei 14,387.27 0.26%

EUR/USD- 1.3291 0.15%
USD/JPY- 99.51 0.38%
GBP/USD- 1.5813 0.03%

Gold- 1342.58 1.66% 
Oil (Brent)- 112.09 0.53%
Copper- 322.85 0.88%

10 year yields
US- 2.89 (-2bps)
UK- 2.97 (-3bps)
Japan- 0.72 (-1bps)

Market Update 11/09/13

One line- Risk on attitude in markets on the back of Chinese data and a reduction in Syria concerns however the focus is shifting back to tapering.

- Obama has decided to put off a vote to Congress regarding military action in Syria while a diplomatic initiative is pursued in the UN with Russia. The initiative would remove chemical weapons from Syria without the use of force. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/91e7242a-1a7f-11e3-b3da-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2eNo4QzxI

- US stocks rallied yesterday following the positive Chinese economic data and the Syrian proposal. The S&P added 0.7%. Goldman Sachs, Visa and Nike all rallied as they were to be added to the Dow Jones at the expense of Bank of America, Hewlett-Packard and Alcoa.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-10/u-s-stock-futures-gain-on-chinese-industrial-output-data.html

- The Nikkei finished flat yesterday giving back early gains on the session as the yen strengthened. European stocks were little changed this morning. A dampening of risk appetite seems to be occurring as traders are wary to add to long bets with a potential tapering announcement next week. Oil markets were volatile yesterday as they interpreted the new potential solution to Syria with Brent finishing up 0.3%. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5ec935b8-1a90-11e3-b3da-00144feab7de.html#axzz2eNo4QzxI  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-11/european-stock-futures-little-changed-after-syria-delay.html

- Gold touched a three week low as tapering concerns and reduced Syria worries have weighed on the metal. The metal has lost 4.8% since the end of August declining to $1367.95. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-11/gold-fluctuates-as-obama-steps-back-from-strike-against-syria.html

- The dollar reversed a three day decline against the euro ahead of a talk tomorrow by William Dudley the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of NY. The aussie dollar weakened before an economic report tomorrow that economists expect will show an increase in unemployment. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-10/yen-near-7-week-low-as-syria-tensions-ease-before-fed-s-dudley.html

Data

S&P 1683.99 0.73%
FTSE 6578.12  0.09%
Nikkei 14,425.07 0.01%


EUR/USD- 1.3269 0.01%
USD/JPY- 100.22 0.17%
GBP/USD- 1.5773 0.25%

Gold- 1367.21 0.24%
Oil (Brent)- 112.35 0.99%
Copper- 327.90 0.51%

10 year yields
US- 2.94 (-2bps)
UK- 3.01 (+5bps)
Japan- 0.73 (-1bps)

Market Update 10/09/13

One line- Risk on attitude in the markets from good Chinese economic data and the possibility that Syria may be resolved without US military intervention.

- The Dow had its biggest gain since the 11 of July as strong Chinese export data from early Monday morning boosted US markets. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-09/u-s-stock-index-futures-gain-as-chinese-exports-rise.html

- Positive Chinese industrial production and retail sales figures buoyed Asian markets overnight and European stocks to one month highs this morning. The aussie dollar also gained on the news. Adding to the risk on sentiment was an alternative solution to the Syria problem proposed by Putin for Assad to hand over his chemical weapons. Gold and oil fell on the news. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/852e7824-19c0-11e3-80ec-00144feab7de.html#axzz2eNo4QzxI

- Emerging stocks rose to three month highs on the Chinese data while currency gains in the rupee, the won and other emerging currencies pleased the respective central bankers. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-10/emerging-stocks-rise-on-oil-as-china-h-shares-climb-20-from-low.html

- Japan will prepare a stimulus package to cushion the blow from the much talked about sales tax increase the finance minister Taro Aso said today. The decision on whether the sales tax increase will go ahead will be taken on the 1st of October. The yen continued to weaken yesterday.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-10/japan-prepares-stimulus-to-cushion-impact-of-sales-tax-increase.html

- George Osborne was bullish yesterday on the UK economy citing that the signs of growth were vindication of the austere policies that have been carried out. Treasury figures and business surveys suggest that the UK may be growing as quickly as 4% annualized at the moment. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/856b9566-1974-11e3-80ec-00144feab7de.html#axzz2eNo4QzxI

Data

S&P 1671.71 0.94%
FTSE 6581.75  0.78%
Nikkei 14,423.36 1.54%


EUR/USD- 1.3242 0.10%
USD/JPY- 100.04 0.46%
GBP/USD- 1.5705 0.06%

Gold- 1375.23 0.85%
Oil (Brent)- 113.22 0.44%
Copper- 325.90 0.58%

10 year yields
US- 2.94 (+2bps)
UK- 3.00 (+5bps)
Japan- 0.71 (-3bps)

Market Update 09/09/13

One line- Asian markets buoyed by positive Chinese economic data, European markets flat while US markets weigh the probability of tapering following poor jobs data.

- A disappointing US job report on Friday reduced expectations of September tapering causing US and European yields to fall. The consensus for August non farm payrolls was 180 000 with the figure coming in at a disappointing 169 000. The unemployment rate did fall but this was due to the participation rate falling to its lowest level since 1978. US stocks were flat on the news having gained 1.4% on the week. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/61d25664-1698-11e3-a57d-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2eNo4QzxI

- Japanese stocks jumped to 5 week highs buoyed by the news that Tokyo will host the Olympics in 2020. Upward revisions of Japanese second quarter growth from 2.6% annualized to 3.6% also assisted the rally of 2.2% for the Nikkei. Asian stocks continued an 8 day winning streak as China revealed August inflation was benign at 2.6% and export growth was 7.6%. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/55c1047a-18f9-11e3-83b9-00144feab7de.html#axzz2eNo4QzxI

- European stocks were little changed this morning on the back of the positive Chinese data. George Osborne gives a speech today on the UK economy and will promise to stick with the austerity plan the government has been implementing. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-09/european-stock-index-futures-advance-before-syria-vote.html

- The yen slid overnight on the positive data from China as investors sought riskier assets. The Aussie dollar touched a three week high following the expected victory of Tony Abbott and his right wing coalition. The dollar initially strengthened as Syria intervention looked more likely following the G20 summit but has pulled back this morning. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-08/yen-slides-on-tokyo-olympics-success-aussie-kiwi-gain-on-china.html

- While gold initially climbed on the weaker than expected US jobs data it has pared back those gains in London this morning suggesting the market is still expecting September tapering. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-09/gold-declines-as-investors-expect-fed-to-press-on-with-tapering.html

Data

S&P 1655.17 0.01%
FTSE 6528.48  0.29%
Nikkei 14,205.23 2.48%
EUR/USD- 1.3189 0.08%
USD/JPY- 99.43 0.32%
GBP/USD- 1.5672 0.25%

Gold- 1387.56 0.30%
Oil (Brent)- 115.87 0.22%
Copper- 328.20 0.63%


10 year yields
US- 2.90 (-3bps)
UK- 2.94 (0bps)
Japan- 0.75 (-2bps)

Soros

Great interview with Soros from earlier this year - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXcUSzN6cBs