One line- Slow trading day with the dollar gaining and US rates moving higher on speculation the US job report released today will make the case for tapering.
- US stocks were flat yesterday while Asian stocks were mixed. The Nikkei sold off while investors took profits ahead of the 2020 games announcement this weekend which Tokyo has made a bid for. The euro weakened as Draghi cited a very green recovery in Europe and the potential to bring rates further down. The dollar continued strengthening ahead of a jobs report today expected to make the case for tapering. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/09/06/uk-markets-global-idUKBRE87514J20130906
- European stocks are flat this morning coming off the back of a strong week. The Euro Stoxx 600 has gained 2.6% this week as positive PMI data from China, relief on Syria and a dovish Draghi drove gains. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-06/european-stock-index-futures-are-little-changed.html
- The Indian rupee rallied as the new governor Raghuram Rajan unveiled plans to attract dollars from non resident Indians, to increase foreign borrowing by Indian banks and to free up the ability to make forward contracts. The rupee rallied 2%. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/67e91a3a-161e-11e3-a57d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2duTDeNw6
- Fed tapering speculation pushed Treasury yields briefly above 3% yesterday. A service industries report showed the fastest growth in the sector since December 2005, far exceeding expectations. http://www.cnbc.com/id/101010399
- US crude oil prices jumped as inventories fell with the WTI gaining $1.31 yesterday to $108.54. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/296e18ca-1644-11e3-a57d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2duTDeNw6
Data
S&P 1655.08 0.12%
FTSE 6519.34 0.20%
Nikkei 13,860.81 1.45%
EUR/USD- 1.3132 0.09%
USD/JPY- 99.59 0.52%
GBP/USD- 1.5581 0.06%
Gold- 1369.05 0.11%
Oil (Brent)- 115.03 0.03%
Copper- 327.05 0.82%
10 year yields
US- 2.98 (-1bps)
UK- 2.99 (-2bps)
Japan- 0.78 (+1bps)
Friday, 6 September 2013
Thursday, 5 September 2013
European History
http://www.worldology.com/Europe/europe_history_lg.htm have been messing around with this for a few hours. Very useful for gaining an overview if like me you have huge blind spots in historical knowledge.
Market Update 05/09/13
One line- Positive economic data driving equity gains while Treasuries continue to sell off.
- US stocks advanced yesterday as the Fed's Beige Book said the US recovery was moderate with increased spending on cars and housing helping to drive growth. The Senate took the first step to authorising military action against Syria when a committee voted in favour, the margin of victory though was narrow. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-04/u-s-stock-index-futures-are-little-changed.html http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/09/05/uk-syria-crisis-idUKBRE97S0LQ20130905
- European stocks advanced with Asian stocks ahead of key central banking meetings today. The ECB and the Bank of England are both meeting and both are expected to keep monetary policy constant. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-05/european-stock-futures-gain-before-central-bank-meetings.html
- Treasuries are the world's worst performing bonds and their volatility has hit a 2 month high amongst tapering speculation. Pimco co CIO Mohamed El-Erian see's tapering beginning this month with a reduction in the Treasury purchases. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-05/treasuries-worst-performer-as-pimco-forecasts-september-taper.html
- The Bank of Japan lifted its assessment of Japan's economy citing progress in its price target and inflation expectations. The Bank says the housing sector is looking stronger and exports have picked up increasing investment. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/11c67398-15db-11e3-b519-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2duTDeNw6
- The Aussie dollar rallied on positive growth data along with sterling and the euro. A strong survey from the services sector drove sterling 0.4% higher against a basket of currencies. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d31b079c-157d-11e3-950a-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2duTDeNw6
- Gold fell for a second day on the back of tapering expectations and the limited level of Syria strikes that may occur. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-05/gold-climbs-as-obama-moves-closer-to-approval-for-syrian-strike.html
Data
S&P 1653.08 0.81%
FTSE 6525.86 0.79%
Nikkei 14,064.82 0.08%
EUR/USD- 1.3187 0.15%
USD/JPY- 99.88 0.14%
GBP/USD- 1.5614 0.08%
Gold- 1408.94 0.25%
Oil (Brent)- 115.71 0.03%
Copper- 326.70 1.13%
10 year yields
US- 2.93 (+3bps)
UK- 2.91 (+4bps)
Japan- 0.77 (+1bps)
- US stocks advanced yesterday as the Fed's Beige Book said the US recovery was moderate with increased spending on cars and housing helping to drive growth. The Senate took the first step to authorising military action against Syria when a committee voted in favour, the margin of victory though was narrow. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-04/u-s-stock-index-futures-are-little-changed.html http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/09/05/uk-syria-crisis-idUKBRE97S0LQ20130905
- European stocks advanced with Asian stocks ahead of key central banking meetings today. The ECB and the Bank of England are both meeting and both are expected to keep monetary policy constant. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-05/european-stock-futures-gain-before-central-bank-meetings.html
- Treasuries are the world's worst performing bonds and their volatility has hit a 2 month high amongst tapering speculation. Pimco co CIO Mohamed El-Erian see's tapering beginning this month with a reduction in the Treasury purchases. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-05/treasuries-worst-performer-as-pimco-forecasts-september-taper.html
- The Bank of Japan lifted its assessment of Japan's economy citing progress in its price target and inflation expectations. The Bank says the housing sector is looking stronger and exports have picked up increasing investment. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/11c67398-15db-11e3-b519-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2duTDeNw6
- The Aussie dollar rallied on positive growth data along with sterling and the euro. A strong survey from the services sector drove sterling 0.4% higher against a basket of currencies. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d31b079c-157d-11e3-950a-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2duTDeNw6
- Gold fell for a second day on the back of tapering expectations and the limited level of Syria strikes that may occur. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-05/gold-climbs-as-obama-moves-closer-to-approval-for-syrian-strike.html
Data
S&P 1653.08 0.81%
FTSE 6525.86 0.79%
Nikkei 14,064.82 0.08%
EUR/USD- 1.3187 0.15%
USD/JPY- 99.88 0.14%
GBP/USD- 1.5614 0.08%
Gold- 1408.94 0.25%
Oil (Brent)- 115.71 0.03%
Copper- 326.70 1.13%
10 year yields
US- 2.93 (+3bps)
UK- 2.91 (+4bps)
Japan- 0.77 (+1bps)
Wednesday, 4 September 2013
Market Update 04/09/13
One line- Syria concern juxtaposed with positive manufacturing data in the US gave mixed outcomes across markets.
- European stocks declining before the Fed releases its economic survey outlook. The Aussie dollar climbed to a two week high on news that the nations economy accelerated unexpectedly last quarter. Asian stocks were mixed although the Nikkei continued its rally on the back of dollar strength gaining 0.5%. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-03/asian-futures-drop-while-wti-holds-gain-on-syria-backing.html
- Crude oil and gold gained yesterday on the back of Syria speculation. US stocks and Treasuries retreated as a report showed a faster than expected increase in manufacturing. Ten year treasury yields added 8 basis points up to 2.86% while the S&P 500 gained 0.42%. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-02/asian-futures-climb-as-yen-holds-slide-while-crude-drops.html
- US senators have reached a deal on a motion authorizing an attack on Syria setting a 60 day deadline for military action. The motion rules out the deployment of US forces in the area, allowing only for missile strikes. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/654f3846-149c-11e3-b3db-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2duTDeNw6
- The Indian rupee has staged a sharp rebound after suspected heavy dollar selling by the central bank. The currency strengthened 0.6% to 67.23 but has slid 20% vs the dollar year to date. Raghuram Rajan begins his post today as head of the Reserve Bank of India. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/09/04/uk-india-economy-rupee-idUKBRE98306820130904
Data
S&P 1639.77 0.42%
FTSE 6453.79 0.23%
Nikkei 14,053.87 0.54%
EUR/USD- 1.3170 0.00%
USD/JPY- 99.57 0.00%
GBP/USD- 1.5579 0.14%
Gold- 1408.94 0.25%
Oil (Brent)- 115.71 0.03%
Copper- 326.70 1.13%
10 year yields
US- 2.87 (+1bps)
UK- 2.88 (0bps)
Japan- 0.76 (0bps)
- European stocks declining before the Fed releases its economic survey outlook. The Aussie dollar climbed to a two week high on news that the nations economy accelerated unexpectedly last quarter. Asian stocks were mixed although the Nikkei continued its rally on the back of dollar strength gaining 0.5%. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-03/asian-futures-drop-while-wti-holds-gain-on-syria-backing.html
- Crude oil and gold gained yesterday on the back of Syria speculation. US stocks and Treasuries retreated as a report showed a faster than expected increase in manufacturing. Ten year treasury yields added 8 basis points up to 2.86% while the S&P 500 gained 0.42%. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-02/asian-futures-climb-as-yen-holds-slide-while-crude-drops.html
- US senators have reached a deal on a motion authorizing an attack on Syria setting a 60 day deadline for military action. The motion rules out the deployment of US forces in the area, allowing only for missile strikes. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/654f3846-149c-11e3-b3db-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2duTDeNw6
- The Indian rupee has staged a sharp rebound after suspected heavy dollar selling by the central bank. The currency strengthened 0.6% to 67.23 but has slid 20% vs the dollar year to date. Raghuram Rajan begins his post today as head of the Reserve Bank of India. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/09/04/uk-india-economy-rupee-idUKBRE98306820130904
Data
S&P 1639.77 0.42%
FTSE 6453.79 0.23%
Nikkei 14,053.87 0.54%
EUR/USD- 1.3170 0.00%
USD/JPY- 99.57 0.00%
GBP/USD- 1.5579 0.14%
Gold- 1408.94 0.25%
Oil (Brent)- 115.71 0.03%
Copper- 326.70 1.13%
10 year yields
US- 2.87 (+1bps)
UK- 2.88 (0bps)
Japan- 0.76 (0bps)
Monday, 2 September 2013
Market Update 02/09/13
One line- strong Chinese PMI data driving the markets rallying stocks, metals and oil.
- The pound reached a two month high vs the euro and the dollar on news that house price growth quickened in August. PMI readings today are expected to show expansion for a fifth month in a row for August. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-02/pound-reaches-two-month-high-versus-euro-as-house-prices-climb.html
- The dollar continued to strengthen vs EM currencies strong economic growth data released last week raised the probability of tapering beginning this year. The peso and real declined 4.3% and 4% respectively against the dollar last month. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-31/dollar-climbs-on-taper-bets-amid-syria-tension-rupee-tumbles.html
- Treasuries have declined for 4 months in a row, the longest losing streak in more than two years. Strong economic data has fueled the decline as conviction about tapering to begin this year has grown. Some strategists believe that payroll figures for last month will be key in deciding whether tapering will begin in September- a figure above 200 000 is expected to make September tapering very likely. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-30/treasuries-set-for-fourth-monthly-drop-amid-fed-taper-prospects.html
- Abe's plan for a sales tax increase was boosted as capital spending data pointed to a faster economic growth than had been expected. Abe plans to increase sales tax from 5% to 8% in April 2014. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-31/extra-japan-stimulus-needed-for-tax-move-panel-members-say.html
Data:
S&P 1632.97 0.32%
FTSE 6492.29 1.24%
Nikkei 13,572.92 1.37%
EUR/USD- 1.3219 0.02%
USD/JPY- 99.26 1.11%
GBP/USD- 1.5584 0.52%
Gold- 1394.15 0.08%
Oil (Brent)- 113.55 0.40%
Copper- 329.40 1.89%
10 year yields
US- 2.78 (0bps)
UK- 2.84 (+7bps)
Japan- 0.73 (+2bps)
S&P 1632.97 0.32%
FTSE 6492.29 1.24%
Nikkei 13,572.92 1.37%
EUR/USD- 1.3219 0.02%
USD/JPY- 99.26 1.11%
GBP/USD- 1.5584 0.52%
Gold- 1394.15 0.08%
Oil (Brent)- 113.55 0.40%
Copper- 329.40 1.89%
10 year yields
US- 2.78 (0bps)
UK- 2.84 (+7bps)
Japan- 0.73 (+2bps)
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