A pretty damning bitcoin chart

For Bitcoin enthusiasts this is not a an encouraging chart. Any other legitimate currencies where less than 50 people hold over a quarter of the entire circulation? http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/12/great-graphic-bitcoin-concentration.html

Market Update takes a break

I will be taking a break from the market updates for the winter holidays but will still be posting any articles I find interesting.

Market Update 05/12/13

One line- Risk off moves ahead of non farm payrolls report on Friday. 

- Global stocks are selling off ahead of the non-farm payroll report on Friday which investors are fearing may make the case for an earlier tapering than expected. The S&P lost 0.1%  while the Nikkei lost 1.5% overnight. Treasury yields are trending higher closing overnight at a near two month high of 2.84%. Commodities are broadly flat, in FX the dollar is down against its major crosses. Positive news in India rallied the Sensex rallied 1.1% along with the rupee. The Hindu nationalist party has been making gains in the polls ahead of next years election. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/30ccc034-5d5d-11e3-81bd-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2mUvBwAtP

- Joe Biden told Chinese president Ji Xinping that the US does not recognise their air defence identification zone and that China needs to "take steps to reduce the risk of accidental conflict and miscalculation". He stopped short though of telling the Chinese to abolish the zone. He also brought up the maltreatment of journalists of the Times and Bloomberg, who following a report on the build up of wealth of those in power in China have been refused visas. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4ddf36ae-5d5b-11e3-a558-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2mUvBwAtP

- In a speech in one of the poorer districts of Washington Barack Obama said inequality is the defining issue of our time and called for a rise in the federal minimum wage. In the 50 minute speech he chronicled the decline in relative incomes since the 1970s and defended the role of government in alleviating the problems. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0cf55624-5d0f-11e3-a558-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2mUvBwAtP

- In Ukraine the prime minister said late on Wednesday his government was prepared to discuss snap elections in a move designed to bring an end to the ongoing protests. The comments come after the opposition leaders appealed to European powers to intervene as the stand-off threatens to cause a financial crisis. The Ukrainian hryvnia is down to a 2009 low while its bond yields have soared. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3d2630cc-5d0d-11e3-a558-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2mUvBwAtP

Data

S&P 1792.81 0.13%

FTSE 6510.33 0.01%
Nikkei 15,177.49 1.50%

EUR/USD- 1.3598 0.04%
USD/JPY- 102.07 0.28%
GBP/USD- 1.6351 0.20%

Gold- 1233.10 0.86%
Oil (Brent)- 111.98 0.09%

Copper- 323.45 0.45%

 

10 year yields

US- 2.84 (0bps)
UK- 2.89 (-1bps)
Japan- 0.62 (0bps)

Brazilian economy has worst quarter in 5 years

Contracting 0.5% in the third quarter http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/95c2ef90-5c3b-11e3-b4f3-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2mUvBwAtP

Market Update 04/12/13

One line- Momentum continues to slow in the markets ahead of data releases later in the week.

- Trading is cautious this morning following a mixed session in Asia and a minor sell off in America. The yen continued to weaken but comments by Takehiro Sato, a BoJ board member, that further easing would be counter-productive caused the Nikkei to sell off 2.2%. European stocks have opened up this morning following their biggest decline in three months yesterday as the rally of the last few weeks begins to lose momentum. Currencies are quiet while commodities are mixed. WTI is up 1.3%, gold is off 0.6% while copper is up 0.2%. Rates are trending higher following a better than expected US manufacturing survey on Monday boosting tapering expectations. Ahead today we have Eurozone GDP figures and the US Federal Reserve Beige Book release. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7f406126-5c95-11e3-b4f3-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2mUvBwAtP

- China's HSBC services PMI showed a figure of 52.5 in November indicating steady growth for the sector. The figure signalled the third consecutive month of employment expansion but growth in new orders fell from October's seven month peak. The services industry accounted for 45% of China's GDP in 2012 and overtook manufacturing to become the country's largest employer in 2011. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/04/us-china-economy-pmi-idUSBRE9B304420131204

- Shinzo Abe is forming a $182 billion stimulus package to be approved by the government this week that will not require the government to sell any more debt. The bulk of the package is aimed at dampening the blow from the sales tax hike which is coming in in April. The measures include steps to boost competitiveness, assist women, build infrastructure for Tokyo 2020 and accelerate reconstruction from the 2011 tsunami. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/04/us-japan-economy-stimulus-idUSBRE9B21AI20131204

- Ukrainian prime minister Azarov survived a vote of no-confidence yesterday as mass demonstrations continue over the withdrawal of Ukraine from a pact to bring it closer to Europe. The vote which required 226 politicians to support the motion received only 186 in support. Opposition leaders are now calling on the president Yanukovich to fire the prime minister and hold snap parliamentary and presidential elections. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d1f11bf8-5c0f-11e3-931e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2mUvBwAtP

- Australia's economy grew at a disappointing 2.3% in the third quarter (yoy) missing forecasts and the slowest figure this year. The country is continuing to come to grips with the loss in demand for commodities from China and the subsequent slump in prices. http://on.ft.com/1g4qmeb

Data

S&P 1795.15 0.32%

FTSE 6534.27 0.03%
Nikkei 15,407.94 2.17%

EUR/USD- 1.3591 0.02%
USD/JPY- 102.62 0.11%
GBP/USD- 1.6360 0.19%

Gold- 1215.72 0.63%
Oil (Brent)- 112.36 0.23%

Copper- 317.85 0.35%

 

10 year yields

US- 2.80 (+1bps)
UK- 2.83 (+2bps)
Japan- 0.62 (0bps)

Market Update 03/12/13

One line- Rally begins to show signs of slowing momentum as investors take profits.

- Global equities have broadly sold off while bonds and gold are gaining. The current moves potentially point to slowing down of the pace we have seen over the last 8 record gaining weeks on Wall Street. The Nikkei added 0.6% on talk of further easing by the JGB while the Hang Seng lost 0.5% and the ASX 200 lost 0.4%. The S&P finished down 0.3% while the FTSE is down 0.2% this morning. The dollar and industrial commodities are flat. Treasury yields hit an 11 week high of 2.81 for the ten year before easing to 2.79. The euro is stronger vs the dollar up to $1.3554 while the continued prospect of tapering helped to weaken emerging currencies. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/83def222-5bc5-11e3-848e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2mJ6HA6Em

- China's yuan overtook the euro as the second most used trade finance currency. The move indicates the pace which China is seeking to liberalise its financial markets although there is still a very long way to go. The yuan accounted for 8.66% of letters and credit collection in October compared with the dollar's 81% share. The currency has appreciated 2.3% vs the dollar this year, the most of any Asian currency. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-03/yuan-passes-euro-to-be-second-most-used-trade-finance-currency.html

- As Joe Biden is beginning a week of meetings with leaders in northeast Asia the US has called on China to renege on its implemented air defence zone. They argued that the air zone makes accidents far more likely and that procedures should change. The US has deployed spy air craft to Japan to monitor submarine activity around the disputed areas. The Obama administration has been accused of a confused response to the situation by first sending two bombers through the zone and then telling commercial airlines to respect the Chinese orders. Biden meets Japanese leaders today and then travels to Beijing tomorrow. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2e8fda9c-5bc1-11e3-a2ba-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2mJ6HA6Em

- Thai police have stepped aside ending clashes with protesters who have now taken over a number of state buildings. The move has ended violence on the streets and allowed the protesters to enter and leave the Government House peacefully. Prime minister Yingluck is strongly supported by the poor and would win an election called today, her opposition are the upper middle class and the ruling elite- generals, bureaucrats and wealthy conservatives. The Thai financial markets showed relief yesterday with the currency and its equities rallying on the news.  http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/12/03/uk-thailand-protest-idUKBRE9AS02120131203

- As turmoil continues in the Ukraine its bond yields have soared along with its corresponding CDS. Ukraines already fragile economy is likely to be hurt as 10 000's of people take to the streets. The price of insuring against Ukrainian government default over the next 5 years increased by over 10%. Putin again stuck himself into affairs condemning the protesters calling them "pogroms". Opposition lawmakers are looking to hold a vote of no confidence against Yanukovich's party which may pass as some of his members are defecting. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e8b86a86-5b28-11e3-848e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2mJ6HA6Em

Data

S&P 1800.90 0.27%

FTSE 6568.22 0.41%
Nikkei 15,749.66 0.60%

EUR/USD- 1.3570 0.21%
USD/JPY- 102.99 0.05%
GBP/USD- 1.6408 0.30%

Gold- 1222.42 0.21%
Oil (Brent)- 111.52 0.06%

Copper- 316.95 0.41%

 

 

10 year yields

US- 2.79 (0bps)
UK- 2.84 (0bps)
Japan- 0.62 (+2bps)

Market Update 02/12/13

One line- Stronger than expected Chinese PMI kicks off December rates sell off while risk on currencies gain.

- An improving Chinese PMI has kicked off December with a measure of 50.8, beating the forecasts of 50.4. The Nikkei was flat overnight as the yen stabilised at 102.49 while European stocks have sold off this morning. The pound rose for a fifth day adding 0.3% along with the kiwi dollar and the aussie dollar who gained 1% and 0.5% on the Chinese data. The dollar continued its weakening supporting industrial commodity prices while US yields continue to tick up adding 3bp to the ten year rate at 2.78% while the UK ten year added 6bp to 2.83%. Gold fell 0.8% as the Chinese report added to optimism about the global economy. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-01/yen-holds-drop-asian-futures-mixed-before-factory-data.html http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5d06d500-5aff-11e3-942a-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2mJ6HA6Em

- David Cameron is pushing for a free trade deal to be developed between China and the EU but he understands he is likely to meet resistance within the bloc. The idea was proposed by the Chinese government and could help to raise bilateral trade to $1tn by 2020. Cameron's comments come at the beginning of a three day trip to China where he will meet the Premier Li Keqiang to discuss the deal as well reductions in tariffs for key sectors. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d152cade-5a7f-11e3-b255-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2mJ6HA6Em

- Thai prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra has rejected calls to step down while protesters clash with police for a second day in Bangkok. She has stated she will seek to "open every door" for peaceful negotiations with the opposition who issued an ultimatum for her to step down in two days. Protesters are besieging the Government House and have already overran the state television station. At least three people have died while 58 are injured as clashes have gone on through the night causing the government to call for a voluntary curfew between 10pm and 5am. The Thai baht is down 0.7% this morning. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b147d052-5b08-11e3-b255-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2mJ6HA6Em

- The biggest demonstrations in the Ukraine since the 2004 Orange Revolution have been sparked by the government's decision to back away from a deal to strengthen ties with the EU under pressure from Putin. Protesters occupy two floors of a government building using it as headquarters and hundreds of protestors remained in the Maidan square in Kiev overnight. Most of the estimated 350 000 protesters have been non violent as we move into the 11th day of protests. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e8b86a86-5b28-11e3-848e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2mJ6HA6Em

Data

S&P 1805.81 0.08%

FTSE 6636.23 0.22%
Nikkei 15,655.07 0.04%

EUR/USD- 1.3550 0.31%
USD/JPY- 102.79 0.34%
GBP/USD- 1.6409 0.24%

Gold- 1239.33 1.12%
Oil (Brent)- 109.99 0.27%

Copper- 318.95 0.48%

 

 

10 year yields

US- 2.79 (+4bps)
UK- 2.83 (+6bps)
Japan- 0.61 (+1bps)