Shutdown analysis

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8842a372-26aa-11e3-bbeb-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2gMap02d2

Market Update 30/09/13

One line- Risk off moves on US budget concern with global stocks tumbling while gold, Treasuries and the yen rallied.

- Asian stocks fell overnight with the Nikkei selling off 2.06% as Congress failed to reach an agreement over the US budget. Congress now has just one day to prevent a government shutdown which is calculated to slow US GDP growth 0.1% for every day it is in effect. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-30/asian-stocks-fall-paring-monthly-gain-over-u-s-budget.html

- European stocks opened down this morning as the market made risk off moves on US budget concern. The Republican controlled House of Representatives voted yesterday in support of a bill which ties a delay in central provisions of Obama's health care bill to an extension of government funding. If the Senate rejects the bill today the government will shutdown. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-30/european-stock-index-futures-drop-as-u-s-shutdown-looms.html

- Gold advanced to the highest level in more than a week as demand for safe haven assets was boosted. Bullion gained 1.3% on the recent US budget news. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-30/gold-climbs-as-prospect-of-u-s-government-shutdown-spurs-demand.html

- Italian yields jumped as Berlusconi pulled his ministers from a 5 month grand coalition as he tried for new elections. Enrico Letta the Italian prime minister spoke yesterday with Giorgio Napolitano, the head of state, as both look to avoid dissolving parliament and calling new elections. Letta is expected to present a plan for government and have a vote of confidence on Wednesday. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7b12685c-2927-11e3-ab62-00144feab7de.html#axzz2gMap02d2

- Treasury yields fell to a 7 week low as investors shifted preferences to safe haven assets. The dollar fell to a one month low vs the yen while the pound gained also.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-30/treasury-yields-drop-to-7-week-low-as-shutdown-fuels-safety-bid.html  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-29/dollar-extends-drop-against-yen-with-government-shutdown-looming.html

Data

S&P 1691.75 0.41%
FTSE 6467.99  0.69%
Nikkei 14,455.80 2.06%

EUR/USD- 1.3499 0.17%
USD/JPY- 97.81 0.44%
GBP/USD- 1.6156 0.11%

Gold- 1340.95 0.30%
Oil (Brent)- 107.78 0.78%

Copper- 333.25 0.09%

10 year yields
US- 2.61 (-1bps)
UK- 2.69 (-1bps)
Japan- 0.68 (+1bps)

Market Update 27/09/13

One line- Positive US jobless claims data drove markets higher but budget talks loom ahead.

- US stocks reversed a five day losing streak yesterday as an unexpected drop in jobless claims pushed the S&P up 0.3%. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-26/u-s-stock-futures-rise-after-five-day-slide-for-s-p-500.html

- US jobless claims data and data showing Japan is experiencing its highest inflation since 2008 drove Asian markets higher overnight. Inflation in Japan was 0.8%. The Asia MCSI index added 0.3% although the Nikkei sold off 0.26% as the yen appreciated. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-27/asia-stocks-set-for-best-monthly-gain-since-sept-2010.html

- Ahead of a report today on economic confidence in the euro area european equities are flat having had a similar day yesterday. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-27/europe-stock-index-futures-little-changed-before-data.html

- Gold swung between gains and losses as investors considered how the unexpected drop in US jobless claims would affect the Fed's decision to taper. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-27/gold-extends-weekly-drop-as-jobless-claims-boost-fed-taper-bets.html

- The pound headed to an 8 month high vs the dollar as Mark Carney told a UK newspaper he saw no need for further stimulus. The yen strengthened as worries about US budget talks drove its safe haven status. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-26/dollar-poised-for-weekly-advance-before-consumer-data-fed-speak.html

Data

S&P 1698.67 0.35%
FTSE 6544.86  0.32%
Nikkei 14,760.07 0.26%

EUR/USD- 1.3502 0.10%
USD/JPY- 98.61 0.38%
GBP/USD- 1.6080 0.24%

Gold- 1326.07 0.15%
Oil (Brent)- 108.92 0.27%

Copper- 330.95 0.08%

10 year yields
US- 2.65 (0bps)
UK- 2.74 (-1bps)
Japan- 0.67 (-2bps)

Market Update 26/09/13

One line- Mixed picture with the US selling off on debt talk worries while Asian markets rallied on speculation that Japanese policy makers will study a corporate tax cut.

- US stocks continued to sell off yesterday as the markets focus on upcoming US debt talks. Asian equities led by Japanese shares climbed on speculation that the government will study a corporate tax cut. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-26/asian-stocks-fall-third-day-trimming-monthly-advance.html

- European stocks were little changed this morning as investors await significant news with regard to tapering or the US debt ceiling. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-26/europe-stock-index-futures-little-changed-before-data.html

- Emerging stocks fell to a one week low while the Brazilian real posted the biggest decline in a month. The sell off trimmed its September advance to 8.4%. A private survey showed yesterday that China's economy slowed last quarter with manufacturing and transport growth experiencing a drop in activity. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-25/emerging-stocks-fall-to-one-week-low-on-u-s-demand-rupiah-drops.html

- The pound appreciated against the dollar and is approaching an 8 month high ahead of GDP figures to be released today. Economists predict the UK economy grew 0.7% in the three months through June.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-26/pound-about-0-5-from-eight-month-high-before-u-k-growth-report.html

- McKinsey & Co. see the global commodity super cycle continuing as supply constraints and demand from emerging markets is likely to push prices higher. The report states that energy, metal and agriculture prices that more than doubled since 2000 are still close to highs that they reached before the financial crisis.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-25/commodity-constraints-show-super-cycle-endures-mckinsey-says.html

Data

S&P 1692.77 0.27%
FTSE 6543.55  0.12%
Nikkei 14,799.12 1.22%

EUR/USD- 1.3509 0.13%
USD/JPY- 98.64 0.21%
GBP/USD- 1.6049 0.20%

Gold- 1337.67 0.25%
Oil (Brent)- 108.52 0.18%

Copper- 330.05 0.87%

10 year yields
US- 2.64 (+1bps)
UK- 2.75 (-1bps)
Japan- 0.68 (+1bps)

Far Better Economic calendar

Having posted a calendar for market events which only covered the US I found this one which covers world data - http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar?tz=&sort=date&week=2013%2F0929&eur=true&usd=true&jpy=true&gbp=true&chf=true&aud=true&cad=true&nzd=true&cny=true&high=true&medium=true&low=true

Market Update 25/09/13

One line- Risk off mood continues in the markets as budget talks loom ahead.

- US stocks fell yesterday as upcoming budget talks came into focus and US consumer confidence was shown to be at a 4 month low. The S&P sold off 0.3% while home builders gained 2.3% after a report showed home prices increased by the most in 7 years. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-24/u-s-stock-index-futures-little-changed-red-hat-declin
es.html

-  Asian stocks fell for a second day on the US consumer confidence news paring the gains made last week on the Fed announcement. The Nikkei slid 0.76%. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-25/asian-stocks-fall-second-day-as-u-s-confidence-declines.html

- European equities slid this morning continuing the sell off from Asia and the US as the market shifts focus to the US budget talks. US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said investor confidence that a deal can be struck is "greater than it should be". http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-25/most-asian-stocks-decline-with-currencies-as-commodities-rebound.html

- The yen gained against most of its peers with its safe haven status driving the strength. The dollar was little changed ahead of new home sales data. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-24/dollar-holds-gains-as-budget-talks-spur-haven-appeal-kiwi-drops.html

- Angela Merkel's Christian Democrat party ruled out forming a coalition with the Green party making it almost certain that a centre right-centre left "grand coalition" will be formed. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/09/24/uk-germany-election-idUKBRE98N0QG20130924

Data

S&P 1697.42 0.26%
FTSE 6563.34  0.12%
Nikkei 14,620.53 0.76%

EUR/USD- 1.3497 0.17%
USD/JPY- 98.53 0.22%
GBP/USD- 1.5992 0.08%

Gold- 1321.16 0.16%
Oil (Brent)- 109.08 0.41%

Copper- 326.55 0.28%

10 year yields
US- 2.64 (-1bps)
UK- 2.78 (-1bps)
Japan- 0.66 (0bps)

Market Update 24/09/13

One line- Risk off session in the markets as the focus shifts to US budget talks.

- US stocks fell amid Fed speeches as the S&P had the longest retreat in a month. The index sold off 0.47% with banks leading the decline. A report released yesterday forecast a 20% drop in fixed income revenues for the banks. The Fed speeches gave investors mixed signals with 2 officials presenting opposing cases for tapering in the near term.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-23/u-s-stock-index-futures-are-little-changed-on-china-pmi.html

- Asian stocks fell from a four month high as focus shifts to the upcoming US budget talks. The Topix slid 0.3% while the Shanghai Composite fell 0.6%. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-24/asia-stocks-fall-from-4-month-high-amid-u-s-budget-talks.html

- European stocks erased gains this morning as German data on business confidence missed forecasts. The German IFO index missed the 108 that was forecast reading 107.7. The Stoxx Europe 600 index sold off 0.1% this morning. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-23/australian-futures-fall-as-u-s-stocks-drop-crude-slides.html

- The dollar reversed a two day advance against the euro as investors shift focus to the US debt talks. The currency is set for a 3.7% decline vs the euro for the quarter driven by improving European economic data and the tapering decision. The aussie dollar also dropped adding to general risk off moves. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-23/dollar-holds-drop-as-shutdown-looms-fed-stimulus-damps-demand.html

- WTI traded near a 6 week low as the Syria situation has subsided and as traders speculate a UN resolution will be passed this week. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-23/crude-trades-near-six-week-low-as-middle-east-concern-eases.html

Data

S&P 1701.84 0.47%
FTSE 6562.76  0.08%
Nikkei 14,732.61 0.07%

EUR/USD- 1.3494 0.01%
USD/JPY- 99.10 0.25%
GBP/USD- 1.5983 0.37%

Gold- 1319.20 0.27%
Oil (Brent)- 108.03 0.12%

Copper- 326.65 0.97%
10 year yields
US- 2.69 (-1bps)
UK- 2.87 (-4bps)
Japan- 0.67 (-1bps)

Market Update 23/09/13

One line- Slow day trading as the market begins to shift focus from tapering to the US debt ceiling.

- Asian stocks traded near a four month high overnight after a Chinese manufacturing index surprised on the upside. HSBC and Markit Economics preliminary PMI figure was 51.2 - a sixth month high. Emerging stocks gained on the news with the MSCI emerging markets index adding 0.1%. Japanese markets were closed for holiday. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-23/asian-stocks-near-4-month-high-before-china-manufacturing.html

- European stocks were little changed this morning as Merkel won 41.5% of the vote in the German elections over the weekend. Her previous coalition partners, the Free Democrats, did not win a large enough share to form a coalition with. It is expected she will have to pursue a grand coalition with the SDP, merging centre right with centre left. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ab5476ac-2406-11e3-b506-00144feab7de.html#axzz2fhhD6zDQ  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-23/european-stock-futures-little-changed-after-merkel-win.html

- The euro approached a seven month high after Merkel's win while the dollar continued to sell off on the back of the unchanged QE announcement by the Fed. The euro has strengthened 2.6% this year against the dollar and 17% against the yen. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-22/euro-gains-against-dollar-after-merkel-seen-winning-election.html

- Market focus will begin to shift to the possibility of a US government shut down following relief from the delay of tapering. Republicans are using the issue to try and force a de-funding of Obama's healthcare bill. Government shut down would occur early in October while the debt ceiling needs to be raised to prevent default by late October.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-23/stocks-at-risk-with-government-shutdown-looming-before-a-default.html

Data

S&P 1709.91 0.72%
FTSE 6588.77  0.12%
Nikkei closed

EUR/USD- 1.3520 0.03%
USD/JPY- 98.96 0.40%
GBP/USD- 1.6044 0.24%

Gold- 1327.50 0.12%
Oil (Brent)- 109.13 0.08%

Copper- 329.50 0.77%

10 year yields
US- 2.74 (0bps)
UK- 2.93 (+1bps)
Japan- 0.69 (0bps)

Economic Data calendar

Very useful calendar showing the release of upcoming economic data and other market events - http://mam.econoday.com/

Market Update 20/09/13

One line- Markets pause after Fed induced rally.

- US stocks declined yesterday after the Dow and S&P hit record highs on the news on Wednesday that the Fed would leave monetary policy unchanged. The S&P sold off 0.18% with the Dow sliding 0.26%. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-19/u-s-stock-futures-rise-signaling-fresh-s-p-500-record.html

- Asian stocks traded at a four month high as the yen sold off 1.5% against the dollar. The Topix gained 0.3% while the MSCI Asia Pacific index added 0.1%. India's Sensex slumped 2.7% as the RBI unexpectedly raised interest rates by 25 basis points. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-20/asian-stocks-extend-four-month-high-as-japan-shares-rise.html

- European stocks near a five year high were little changed this morning. The market is looking ahead to the result of the German election in which Merkel's Christian Democratic Union is expected to retain power but may have to form a new coalition. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-20/european-stock-futures-little-changed-before-german-vote.html

- Emerging market currencies and equities slid yesterday as investors took profits from the rally on the Fed news. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-20/emerging-stocks-fall-with-currencies-as-india-sinks-on-repo-rate.html

- Metals declined yesterday with gold trimming its first weekly advance in a month. Reports showed US home sales unexpectedly rose in August and jobless claims gained less than forecast last week. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-20/gold-declines-on-u-s-data-to-pare-first-weekly-gain-in-a-month.html

Data

S&P 1722.34 0.18%
FTSE 6620.04  0.08%
Nikkei 14,742.42 0.16%

EUR/USD- 1.3531 0.01%
USD/JPY- 99.29 0.16%
GBP/USD- 1.6053 0.13%

Gold- 1354.01 0.90%
Oil (Brent)- 109.08 0.29%

Copper- 334.45 0.07%
10 year yields
US- 2.73 (-2bps)
UK- 2.90 (0bps)
Japan- 0.67 (0bps)

Market Update 19/09/13

One line- Bernanke surprises markets by leaving monetary policy unchanged causing global asset prices to rally and the dollar to weaken.

- Global stocks soared to 5 year highs as Bernanke surprised markets by leaving QE unchanged. Treasuries experienced their biggest rally since 2011 with the ten year yield falling 16 basis points. The S&P added 1.2%, the Nikkei gained 1.8% and the FTSE has added 1.5% this morning.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-19/bernanke-resets-fed-policy-by-doing-nothing-as-markets-take-off.html

- Gold gained 4.1% on the Fed announcement leading the gains for metals. WTI jumped to $108.72 as stockpiles fell to the lowest level since March 2012. The dollar sold off for the fifth day in a row coming close to the lowest close since February. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-18/asian-futures-rise-as-fed-holds-stimulus-aussie-retreats.html

- Yellen's chance of becoming the first female Fed Chairman improved as the number three Democrat in the Senate, Charles Schumer, backed her to be picked. Schumer said that Yellen would be an "excellent choice" to succeed Bernanke when his term ends on January the 31st. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-18/new-york-s-schumer-backs-yellen-to-replace-bernanke-at-fed.html

- Emerging currencies experienced a massive relief on the Fed news with the Malaysian ringgit climbing the most since 1998. The ringgit gained 2.5% while the rupee gained 2.4% against the dollar.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-19/ringgit-leads-jump-in-asian-currencies-as-fed-maintains-stimulus.html

- European bonds rallied yesterday with Spanish ten year yields falling five basis points to 4.36%. German ten year yields slid the most since 2011 falling to 1.90%. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-19/german-yields-drop-most-since-2011-after-fed-maintains-stimulus.html

Data

S&P 1725.52 1.22%
FTSE 6653.05  1.44%
Nikkei 14,766.18 1.80%

EUR/USD- 1.3552 0.18%
USD/JPY- 98.92 1.00%
GBP/USD- 1.6075 0.45%

Gold- 1367.45 0.27%
Oil (Brent)- 110.83 0.21%

Copper- 334.65 2.07%

10 year yields
US- 2.69 (0bps)
UK- 2.85 (-15bps)
Japan- 0.67 (-3bps)

Market Update 18/09/13

One line- Dollar and gold weakness while stocks gain cautiously ahead of the result of the FOMC meeting today.

- US equities gained yesterday as Microsoft's plan to buy back $40 billion in stock fuelled optimism that companies would return more cash to shareholders. The euro strengthened as German investor confidence increased. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-16/australian-futures-fall-after-stock-jump-as-dollar-steady.html

- Gold continued its decline along with emerging market stocks ahead of the conclusion of the FOMC meeting today. Positive news for consumer discretionary companies in Japan pushed the Nikkei up 1.4%. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-17/asian-index-futures-rise-before-fed-as-crude-oil-rebounds.html

- European shares advanced this morning but investors are cautious about adding to long positions before a decision on tapering is made today. The Bank of England released minutes from the September 4-5 meeting that showed officials unanimously voted to maintain policy as the UK economy recovers. US housing starts data is expected to show growth from 896 000 to 917 000 annualized from July to August.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-18/european-stock-index-futures-little-changed-before-fed.html

- The dollar lingered near 5 week lows against a basket of currencies yesterday after losing 0.6% in the last week. The decline has been caused by an easing of the Syria situation and Summers exit from the Fed race. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-17/dollar-near-3-week-low-versus-euro-before-fed-concludes-meeting.html

- WTI advanced for the first time in four days before a report by the Energy Information Administration. The report is expected to show that crude inventories fell to the lowest level since August 2012.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-18/wti-swings-after-three-day-drop-as-libya-seeks-to-restore-output.html

Data

S&P 1704.76 0.42%
FTSE 6574.74  0.07%
Nikkei 14,505.36 1.35%

EUR/USD- 1.3356 0.02%
USD/JPY- 98.87 0.26%
GBP/USD- 1.5970 0.42%

Gold- 1302.56 0.61% 
Oil (Brent)- 108.38 0.18%

Copper- 323.95 0.51%

10 year yields
US- 2.84 (-1bps)
UK- 2.95 (+2bps)
Japan- 0.72 (+1bps)

Abe the analyst

“Clearly, Japan is now a Buy” - http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2013/09/17/pm-abe-turns-pitchman-says-japan-is-now-a-buy/

Market Update 17/09/13

One line- The rally following Summers departure from the Fed race reverses as investors look ahead to the FOMC meetings today and tomorrow.

- Following the rally yesterday, on the news Summers would not be a candidate for the Federal Reserve Chairman, global stocks have retreated. Market focus has shifted back to whether the Fed will decide to taper in meetings today and tomorrow. Treasuries also rallied and have subsequently fell back with the ten year yield falling to 2.78% and then rising back up to 2.85%. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c2e4a890-1f43-11e3-b80b-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2f2pLDFdy

- Oil continued to decline on the Syria resolution while emerging currencies resumed their trend, weakening against the dollar ahead of the FOMC meetings today and tomorrow. The expectation is that the Fed will reduce its monthly Treasury purchases by $10 billion to $35 billion and that it will keep mortgage bond-buying at $40 billion. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-16/australian-futures-fall-after-stock-jump-as-dollar-steady.html

- UK inflation slowed to 2.7% in August compared with 2.8% in July, the figure was the same as the median forecast. Having strengthened yesterday vs the dollar the pound pared its gains this morning. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-17/u-k-inflation-slows-to-2-7-on-transport-clothing-prices.html

- Yellen is now the odds on favourite to be the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Currently the vice chairman at the Fed, she would be the first woman to serve in the chairman role. Obama has promised to reveal his choice in the fall which officially begins on September 22nd. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-17/yellen-said-to-top-obama-s-fed-list-after-summers-s-exit.html

- Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia showed policy makers were leaving open the option to cut rates further from the record low of 2.5%. The country has been struggling with rising unemployment and slowing growth as demand for its exports has receded. The aussie dollar has lost 10% this year and unemployment is at a 5 year high of 5.8%. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-17/rba-says-rate-cuts-still-possible-signals-no-moves-imminent.html

Data

S&P 1697.60 0.57%
FTSE 6604.90  0.27%
Nikkei 14,311.67 0.65%

EUR/USD- 1.3359 0.19%
USD/JPY- 99.21 0.13%
GBP/USD- 1.5898 0.01%

Gold- 1319.46 0.51% 
Oil (Brent)- 109.74 0.30%

Copper- 322.25 0.59%

10 year yields
US- 2.84 (-3bps)
UK- 2.90 (+2bps)
Japan- 0.72 (0bps)

Market Update 16/09/13

One line- Global stocks rally while the dollar and gold declines on the news that Larry Summers is out of the running for Federal Reserve Chairman and that Syria will disarm peacefully. 

- Larry Summers took himself out of the running to be Federal Reserve Chairman yesterday in the face of strong opposition from some Democrats. Larry was the front runner in a two horse race with Janet Yellen and is seen as more hawkish. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8a46d28a-1e47-11e3-85e0-00144feab7de.html#axzz2f2pLDFdy

- The dollar weakened while global stocks have rallied with Treasuries on the news that Summers has taken himself out of the running for Federal Reserve Chairman. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.4% overnight while 10 year Treasury yields fell 8 basis points to 2.8%. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-15/dollar-sinks-on-summers-as-australian-index-futures-climb.html

- US bond investors are expecting a small reduction in bond purchases to be announced this week by the Federal Reserve. Markets have priced in a $5 to $10bn reduction in the Feds $85bn monthly purchases. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/77808e10-1cc2-11e3-a8a3-00144feab7de.html#axzz2f2pLDFdy

- Gold declined in London this morning as the US, Russia and Syria reached an agreement for Syria to disarm its chemical weapons. WTI extended its biggest weekly drop since July on the news falling to $106.63 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-16/gold-declines-in-london-as-haven-demand-subsides-on-syria.html  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-15/wti-extends-biggest-weekly-loss-since-july-on-syria-arms-plan.html

- Emerging market currencies were buoyed by the news about Summers with the rupee, the rupiah and the lira all gaining at least 1% overnight. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d759ec54-1e9e-11e3-b80b-00144feab7de.html#axzz2f2pLDFdy

Data

S&P 1687.99 0.27%
FTSE 6637.23  0.81%
Nikkei Not Trading

EUR/USD- 1.3343 0.37%
USD/JPY- 98.89 0.49%
GBP/USD- 1.5928 0.33%

Gold- 1318.58 0.57% 
Oil (Brent)- 110.32 1.24%

Copper- 321.65 0.41%

10 year yields
US- 2.82 (-7bps)
UK- 2.87 (-4bps)
Japan- 0.72 (0bps)

FX graphic

http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/09/great-graphic-fx-turnover.html - FX turnover in three days exceeds total world trade in year while the dollar is on one side of 87% of trades.

Market Update 13/09/13

One line- Investors take profit following the equity rally early in the week and ahead of the FOMC meeting on the 17th and 18th.

- Tapering concern and weak eurozone industrial production figures caused global stocks to fall with the S&P losing 0.3% while the FTSE Asia Pacific index lost 0.5%. The dollar index showed strength gaining 0.2%. The Nikkei was amongst a few that gained adding 0.12% on the back of a weaker yen. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/05c26080-1c24-11e3-b678-00144feab7de.html#axzz2eNo4QzxI

- European stocks retreated this morning as investors await a report on US retail sales. The report is expected to show that US retail sales increased at a faster pace in August than July. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-13/european-stock-futures-little-changed-fresenius-may-move.html

- Chinese shares led emerging stock losses paring the biggest weekly advance since June. Sentiment on the emerging markets has quickly reversed as investors look for brighter growth prospects in the US, Japan and Europe. Indian markets have been judged to have the worst outlook followed by Brazil, Russia and China. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-13/emerging-stocks-trim-best-weekly-gain-since-june-on-china-slump.html

- Treasury yields rose as the Nikkei, a business newspaper in Japan, reported that Summers was to be named the next Federal Reserve chairman without naming a source. 10 year yields moved to 2.94% as the market views Summers as hawkish.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-13/u-s-2-10-year-spread-is-near-widest-since-11-on-policy-outlook.html

- Gold slumped to a 5 week low as receding Syria concerns and tapering expectation caused the biggest weekly decline since June. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-13/gold-heads-for-worst-weekly-loss-since-june-as-fed-seen-tapering.html

Data

S&P 1683.42 0.34%
FTSE 6567.75  0.32%
Nikkei 14,404.67 0.12%

EUR/USD- 1.3289 0.08%
USD/JPY- 99.66 0.12%
GBP/USD- 1.5810 0.03%

Gold- 1312.02 0.73% 
Oil (Brent)- 112.33 0.27%Copper- 320.50 0.16%

10 year yields
US- 2.93 (+2bps)
UK- 2.96 (+2bps)
Japan- 0.72 (0bps)

Market Update 12/0/9/13

One line- Market focus shifts from positive Chinese economic data and the easing of the Syria situation to the potential tapering next week.

- The equity rally that begun at the start of the week has lost momentum as traders look ahead to next weeks potential tapering announcement. Weekly jobless claims for the US are announced today. The S&P added 0.3% yesterday while the Nikkei lost 0.3% as the Yen strengthened below Y100 vs the dollar.  http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d439a868-1b59-11e3-b781-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2eNo4QzxI

- European stocks opened up this morning as investors expressed confidence that the region's economy was improving. Unemployment increased in Australia rallying their bonds and sliding the Aussie dollar. Gold continued its slide as fears over a military strike in Syria subsided. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-11/australian-index-futures-rise-as-kiwi-gains-oil-rebounds.html

- Emerging markets have had their biggest rally of the year so far gaining 6.3% in the last 6 days. Positive economic data from China and the easing of the situation in Syria has driven the gains. Despite this emerging stocks are still down 6% year to date. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-11/emerging-stocks-seen-overbought-as-jump-makes-brazil-bull-market.html

- The Chinese premier Li Keqiang has committed to overhauling state-dominated financial institutions, to free up interest rates and to allow the renminbi to float- a big step towards the liberalisation of the Chinese financial markets. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/43fb452e-1adf-11e3-87da-00144feab7de.html#axzz2eNo4QzxI

- Unemployment dropped unexpectedly in the UK to 7.7% in the three months to to July. Ahead of Mark Carney testifying before parliament today UK gilts have rallied and the pound slid from a seven month high vs the dollar at $1.5789. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-12/pound-reaches-seven-month-high-before-boe-carney-s-testimony.html

Data

S&P 1689.13 0.31%
FTSE 6581.95  0.10%
Nikkei 14,387.27 0.26%

EUR/USD- 1.3291 0.15%
USD/JPY- 99.51 0.38%
GBP/USD- 1.5813 0.03%

Gold- 1342.58 1.66% 
Oil (Brent)- 112.09 0.53%
Copper- 322.85 0.88%

10 year yields
US- 2.89 (-2bps)
UK- 2.97 (-3bps)
Japan- 0.72 (-1bps)

Market Update 11/09/13

One line- Risk on attitude in markets on the back of Chinese data and a reduction in Syria concerns however the focus is shifting back to tapering.

- Obama has decided to put off a vote to Congress regarding military action in Syria while a diplomatic initiative is pursued in the UN with Russia. The initiative would remove chemical weapons from Syria without the use of force. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/91e7242a-1a7f-11e3-b3da-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2eNo4QzxI

- US stocks rallied yesterday following the positive Chinese economic data and the Syrian proposal. The S&P added 0.7%. Goldman Sachs, Visa and Nike all rallied as they were to be added to the Dow Jones at the expense of Bank of America, Hewlett-Packard and Alcoa.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-10/u-s-stock-futures-gain-on-chinese-industrial-output-data.html

- The Nikkei finished flat yesterday giving back early gains on the session as the yen strengthened. European stocks were little changed this morning. A dampening of risk appetite seems to be occurring as traders are wary to add to long bets with a potential tapering announcement next week. Oil markets were volatile yesterday as they interpreted the new potential solution to Syria with Brent finishing up 0.3%. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5ec935b8-1a90-11e3-b3da-00144feab7de.html#axzz2eNo4QzxI  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-11/european-stock-futures-little-changed-after-syria-delay.html

- Gold touched a three week low as tapering concerns and reduced Syria worries have weighed on the metal. The metal has lost 4.8% since the end of August declining to $1367.95. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-11/gold-fluctuates-as-obama-steps-back-from-strike-against-syria.html

- The dollar reversed a three day decline against the euro ahead of a talk tomorrow by William Dudley the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of NY. The aussie dollar weakened before an economic report tomorrow that economists expect will show an increase in unemployment. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-10/yen-near-7-week-low-as-syria-tensions-ease-before-fed-s-dudley.html

Data

S&P 1683.99 0.73%
FTSE 6578.12  0.09%
Nikkei 14,425.07 0.01%


EUR/USD- 1.3269 0.01%
USD/JPY- 100.22 0.17%
GBP/USD- 1.5773 0.25%

Gold- 1367.21 0.24%
Oil (Brent)- 112.35 0.99%
Copper- 327.90 0.51%

10 year yields
US- 2.94 (-2bps)
UK- 3.01 (+5bps)
Japan- 0.73 (-1bps)

Market Update 10/09/13

One line- Risk on attitude in the markets from good Chinese economic data and the possibility that Syria may be resolved without US military intervention.

- The Dow had its biggest gain since the 11 of July as strong Chinese export data from early Monday morning boosted US markets. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-09/u-s-stock-index-futures-gain-as-chinese-exports-rise.html

- Positive Chinese industrial production and retail sales figures buoyed Asian markets overnight and European stocks to one month highs this morning. The aussie dollar also gained on the news. Adding to the risk on sentiment was an alternative solution to the Syria problem proposed by Putin for Assad to hand over his chemical weapons. Gold and oil fell on the news. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/852e7824-19c0-11e3-80ec-00144feab7de.html#axzz2eNo4QzxI

- Emerging stocks rose to three month highs on the Chinese data while currency gains in the rupee, the won and other emerging currencies pleased the respective central bankers. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-10/emerging-stocks-rise-on-oil-as-china-h-shares-climb-20-from-low.html

- Japan will prepare a stimulus package to cushion the blow from the much talked about sales tax increase the finance minister Taro Aso said today. The decision on whether the sales tax increase will go ahead will be taken on the 1st of October. The yen continued to weaken yesterday.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-10/japan-prepares-stimulus-to-cushion-impact-of-sales-tax-increase.html

- George Osborne was bullish yesterday on the UK economy citing that the signs of growth were vindication of the austere policies that have been carried out. Treasury figures and business surveys suggest that the UK may be growing as quickly as 4% annualized at the moment. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/856b9566-1974-11e3-80ec-00144feab7de.html#axzz2eNo4QzxI

Data

S&P 1671.71 0.94%
FTSE 6581.75  0.78%
Nikkei 14,423.36 1.54%


EUR/USD- 1.3242 0.10%
USD/JPY- 100.04 0.46%
GBP/USD- 1.5705 0.06%

Gold- 1375.23 0.85%
Oil (Brent)- 113.22 0.44%
Copper- 325.90 0.58%

10 year yields
US- 2.94 (+2bps)
UK- 3.00 (+5bps)
Japan- 0.71 (-3bps)

Market Update 09/09/13

One line- Asian markets buoyed by positive Chinese economic data, European markets flat while US markets weigh the probability of tapering following poor jobs data.

- A disappointing US job report on Friday reduced expectations of September tapering causing US and European yields to fall. The consensus for August non farm payrolls was 180 000 with the figure coming in at a disappointing 169 000. The unemployment rate did fall but this was due to the participation rate falling to its lowest level since 1978. US stocks were flat on the news having gained 1.4% on the week. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/61d25664-1698-11e3-a57d-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2eNo4QzxI

- Japanese stocks jumped to 5 week highs buoyed by the news that Tokyo will host the Olympics in 2020. Upward revisions of Japanese second quarter growth from 2.6% annualized to 3.6% also assisted the rally of 2.2% for the Nikkei. Asian stocks continued an 8 day winning streak as China revealed August inflation was benign at 2.6% and export growth was 7.6%. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/55c1047a-18f9-11e3-83b9-00144feab7de.html#axzz2eNo4QzxI

- European stocks were little changed this morning on the back of the positive Chinese data. George Osborne gives a speech today on the UK economy and will promise to stick with the austerity plan the government has been implementing. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-09/european-stock-index-futures-advance-before-syria-vote.html

- The yen slid overnight on the positive data from China as investors sought riskier assets. The Aussie dollar touched a three week high following the expected victory of Tony Abbott and his right wing coalition. The dollar initially strengthened as Syria intervention looked more likely following the G20 summit but has pulled back this morning. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-08/yen-slides-on-tokyo-olympics-success-aussie-kiwi-gain-on-china.html

- While gold initially climbed on the weaker than expected US jobs data it has pared back those gains in London this morning suggesting the market is still expecting September tapering. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-09/gold-declines-as-investors-expect-fed-to-press-on-with-tapering.html

Data

S&P 1655.17 0.01%
FTSE 6528.48  0.29%
Nikkei 14,205.23 2.48%
EUR/USD- 1.3189 0.08%
USD/JPY- 99.43 0.32%
GBP/USD- 1.5672 0.25%

Gold- 1387.56 0.30%
Oil (Brent)- 115.87 0.22%
Copper- 328.20 0.63%


10 year yields
US- 2.90 (-3bps)
UK- 2.94 (0bps)
Japan- 0.75 (-2bps)