Friday 30 August 2013

Market Update 30/08/13

One line- US posts positive growth data while the UK votes not to get involved in Syria, dollar gold oil weaken, stocks gain.

- US stocks rose as Syria concerns eased and the country beat growth estimates with 2.5% annualized growth compared with 2.2% that was predicted for Q2. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-29/u-s-stock-index-futures-advance-before-gdp-jobless-data.html

- David Cameron was the first Prime Minister in at least 150 years to lose a parliamentary vote on military action. 10% of Conservatives and 16% of Liberal Democrats voted against the proposal. The proposal means that the UK will play no part in the response to Assad's use of chemical weapons. It was defeated 285 votes to 272. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-29/historic-vote-sees-cameron-defeated-by-lawmakers-on-syria.html

- Asian stocks swung from losses to gains as the result of the UK vote on attacking Syria was decided. The Kopsi added 1% the Sensex 1% and the Taiex 1.3%. Japanese inflation hit an almost 5 year high of 0.7% in July but if energy costs are not included in the measure the figure would be deflationary by 0.1%. The Nikkei dropped 0.5% yesterday. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-30/asia-shares-rise-as-japan-u-s-data-boost-global-growth-outlook.html http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c4fe8f7e-1106-11e3-b5e4-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2d6JdcLZe

- European stocks fell this morning with Euro area confidence data to be released today. Traders are wary to take on positions as uncertainty about Syria continues. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-30/european-stock-index-futures-are-little-changed.html

- The Dollar weakened vs EM currencies as the Rupee strengthened 3.3% and the Lira strengthened 0.4%. This is a continuation of the reversal of the safe haven move we saw on Wednesday. Gold continued its decline from Thursday and oil dropped following the UK vote. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9dcc1f94-1083-11e3-b291-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2d6JdcLZe

Data:
S&P 1638.17 0.11%
FTSE 6453.03  0.46%
Nikkei 13,388.86 0.53%

EUR/USD- 1.3246 0.04%
USD/JPY- 98.00 0.36%
GBP/USD- 1.5506 0.01%

Gold- 1396.66 0.79%
Oil (Brent)- 115.19 0.03%
Copper- 324.95 0.34%

10 year yields
US- 2.76 (0bps)
UK- 2.76 (-1bps)
Japan- 0.71 (+1bps)

Thursday 29 August 2013

Markets Update 29/08/13

One line- Markets breathe a sigh of relief as attack on Syria is delayed.

- David Cameron's attempts to unite the parties and launch an attack on Syria along with the USA were thwarted as Labour leaders switched from support to opposition. The Labour party would like to wait until the result of the UN probe has been declared. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/08/29/uk-syria-crisis-britain-idUKBRE97R1CZ20130829

- US and Asian stocks rose buoyed by energy stock gains and relief about an attack on Syria being delayed. Gold retreated with oil. The Nikkei added 0.91% with the S&P adding 0.27%. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/39a79e14-104f-11e3-a258-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz2d6JdcLZe

- European stocks opened higher as Vodafone looked to sell its stake in Verizon giving it around $130 billion in cash. German jobless data showed an unexpected increase of 7000 although the adjusted jobless rate is 6.8%- near a two decade low. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-29/german-jobless-unexpectedly-rises-even-as-economy-grows.html  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-29/european-stock-index-futures-little-changed-before-data.html

- The Brazilian central bank raised rates for a fourth time since April, to 9% (50bp) in further efforts to protect the Real and quell inflation. Inflation has reached 6.27% while economic growth last year was just 0.9%. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5f347c50-1037-11e3-99e0-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2d6JdcLZe

- US economic data released today is expected to show an acceleration in growth pushing the dollar to 2 week highs against the euro. Emerging currencies bounced as Syria worries eased oil price concerns. The Reserve Bank of India committed to providing foreign currency aid to its oil companies. The rupee strengthened 1.7% on the news. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-28/dollar-trades-near-four-week-high-ahead-of-u-s-growth-report.html

Data:
S&P 1634.96 0.27%
FTSE 6470.88  0.63%
Nikkei 13,459.71 0.91%


EUR/USD- 1.3269 0.53%
USD/JPY- 98.16 0.53%
GBP/USD- 1.5512 0.09%

Gold- 1405.61 0.84%
Oil (Brent)- 115.49 0.96%
Copper- 331.1 0.23%

10 year yields
US- 2.79 (+2bps)
UK- 2.80 (-1bps)
Japan- 0.7 (-1bps)

Wednesday 28 August 2013

Markets Update
One line- Risk off moves as expectations about military action in Syria drove markets.

- The US is likely to launch cruise missiles from the Mediterranean in response to Assad's use of chemical weapons. Strikes are unlikely until UN inspectors who are still gathering evidence leave the area.  http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/08/28/uk-syria-crisis-idUKBRE97K0AJ20130828

- Global stocks slid and oil rose (Brent 115.5) on Syria speculation. The S&P sold off 1.6% and the Nikkei dropped 1.5% overnight. Gold climbed 0.8% as the Dollar also strengthened and copper fell 0.5% to $7277. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-27/asian-futures-slump-as-u-s-stocks-slide-syria-fuels-oil.html

- Emerging market currencies continued selling off as concern about Syria and tapering drove the Lira and Rupee to fresh lows. The Turkish central bank has promised not to raise rates again this year from 7.75% despite facing inflation of 8.8%. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e4483934-0fb7-11e3-99e0-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2d6JdcLZe

- US bond yields have fallen as two weak data points have forced the market to consider that tapering may not occur this year. Durable goods data and housing data were both disappointing. 10 year yields have moved from 3% last week to 2.78% yesterday although some of this movement is likely part of the risk off move driven by speculation on Syria. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/819136e8-0ef3-11e3-8e58-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2d6JdcLZe

Data:
S&P 1630.48 1.59%
FTSE 6417.4  0.37%
Nikkei 13,338.46 1.51%

EUR/USD- 1.3346 0.35%
USD/JPY- 97.4 0.38%
GBP/USD- 1.5461 0.55%

Gold- 1422.71 0.53%
Oil (Brent)- 115.25 0.78%
Copper- 331.1 0.73%

10 year yields
US- 2.73 (+2bps)
UK- 2.76 (-2bps)
Japan- 0.71 (-2bps)